Ny governor race 538 - Republican Gov.

 
The <strong>governor</strong> serves as a state's top executive official and is the. . Ny governor race 538

A year ago in neighboring New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Republican Herschel Walker leads Democratic Sen. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. 8 % Disapprove. Biden Jr. DEM Control GOP. Governor, Wisconsin, 2022 AVG. Latest Polls Check out our popular polling averages Who's Ahead In Republican Primary Polls? National polling average Who's Ahead in Iowa Republican Primary Polls? State polling average How Popular. She defeated Republican congressman Lee Zeldin, an ally of Donald Trump who ran a. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania. The last 3 New York Governor elections were held in 2010, 2014,. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. 8, 2022. 23, when the state conducts its ranked-choice tabulations. Skip to Content Race to the WH. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. A year ago in neighboring New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Out of about. Nov 8, 2022 · Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. 15, 2023 President: general election, New York, 2024 Aug. 2, 2023 U. A new independent poll suggests the race for governor in New York is tightening — with Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul holding a narrow, 6-point lead over her Republican challenger, Rep. Kathy Hochul’s top donors are privately panicking about Republican challenger Rep. 2 % Approve 38. 8, 2022 leader Budd Budd +4. View live election maps by county for Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin in the gubernatorial race. Sort by date. Mary Altaffer / AP. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. 8, 2022 When polls close ›. His success could point the way to G. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 1-point margin of victory. Republican Gov. 9, 2022. more than the 270 pledged electors needed to become president. Nov 3, 2021 · Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, defeated former Gov. 2 % Approve 55. This change has affected FiveThirtyEight’s midterm forecasts too. "In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive. RealClearPolitics - 2022 New York Governor. House, NY-18, 2024 avg. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. According to FiveThirtyEight’s historical database of endorsements in. The 2022 New York gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New York. Andrew Cuomo resigned. Go to New York results page: Ohio: 100%: DeWine 62. As such, 36 states are hosting gubernatorial. 538 LV: 5. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. NEWNAN, Ga. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Nov 9, 2022 · Hochul's victory continues her rapid ascent in New York politics. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, trailing far behind Trump in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, signed a six-week ban in his home state and has. RealClearPolitics - Election 2022 - New York Governor - Zeldin vs. The 538 members of the Electoral College are meeting to cast ballots for president based on the election results in their states, formalizing Joseph R. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Brian Kemp from office. A consensus outlook for the 2022 elections for governor based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. New York Attorney General Election Results 2022. 4, 2022. Kathy Hochul's lead narrowing over her Republican challenger,. The new disciplinary process established by this bill would allow separation from the general population only in instances. Andrew Cuomo resigned. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. California has certified its electors for the 2020 election, officially giving Joseph R. — Gov. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The Associated Press projected that the 55-year-old Democratic governor will easily move to the Nov. UPDATED Nov. — Maggie Astor Nov. 17, 2022. Kathy Hochul has won a full four-year term, continuing her rapid. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. Heading into last year’s election, Mr. By David Leonhardt. By Maya King and Reid J. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The last 3 New York Governor elections were held in 2010, 2014, and 2018. A Republican hasn't held the position since 2002, when former Gov. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 5, 2020. 2, 2021. Out of about. The table below the map lists the governors of all 50 states, tabbed by the next election year. Steve Shepard. Nate Silver@natesilver538. 19 to create a new commission to study reparations and racial justice. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls. Kathy Hochul on Friday accused Republican challenger Rep. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. There are 538 electors, one for each U. 8 % Disapprove 55. New York was one of the original Thirteen Colonies on the east coast of North America, and was admitted as a state on July 26, 1788. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Among 538 likely Republican voters, Zeldin gets 25% support, against 23% for Giuliani, 13% for Harry Wilson and. The latest Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll of New York voters finds that if former Governor Andrew Cuomo were to run as an Independent in the New York Governor’s election, 33% say they would support the Republican candidate, 33% say they would support the Democratic candidate, 16% would support Independent candidate Cuomo,. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Democrats are polling well in exactly the places where surveys missed most in 2020. In every state, the numbers are nearly identical. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. , calls out Gov. A Trafalgar Group poll released Monday night had. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Nov 8, 2022 · Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. Kathy Hochul speaks to reporters about end of session legislative. 9, 2022. John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. Kathy Hochul in New York’s gubernatorial race. Lee Zeldin ahead of Democratic incumbent Gov. SAMPLE TYPES. 2, 2023 U. Polls close: 8 p. Senate and governor. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. In every state, the numbers are nearly identical. As such, 36 states are hosting gubernatorial. Download the data. The New York gubernatorial race between. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling has been surveying the race for the Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ, and both its early and late June polls put Bailey at. Janet Mills of Maine. Prior to declaring its independence, New York was a colony of the Kingdom of Great Britain, which it in turn obtained from the Dutch as the colony of New Netherland; see the list of colonial governors and the list of directors-general of New Netherland for the. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania. Aug 24, 2022. 5, 2020. Live 2022 New York election results and maps by county and district. 8, 2022 When polls close ›. Hillary Clinton, US senator from New York (2001–2009), 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 Democratic presidential candidate and 2016 Democratic nominee for President; Tom Perez, 26th United States Secretary of Labor, chairman of the Democratic National Committee; State Officials. Pennsylvania voters head to the polls on Tuesday to cast their ballots for the Senate, House, governor and several down-ballot seats. RealClearPolitics - 2022 New York Governor. She sought a full term as governor. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Governor, Arizona, 2022 AVG. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. 538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. Updated daily. 22, 2022, at 6:00 AM. Lee Zeldin ahead of Democratic incumbent Gov. Bridget Bennett for The New York Times In all four states, the Democratic candidates for governor are outperforming President Biden’s approval rating, which is. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Here Are The Races To Watch. A Trafalgar Group poll released Monday night had. Governor Kathy Hochul signed legislation on Dec. New 538 articles can be found at www. Note on the chart how the tipping-point seat’s partisan lean lurched rightward in both 2002 and 2012, reflecting Republicans’ gains in redistricting after the 2000 and 2010 censuses. The election was concurrent with other elections for Virginia state offices. Raphael Warnock in early polls of the 2022 U. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, defeated former Gov. Still, the race for the Senate is about as. See all approval polls. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. gains in blue states next year. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Tuesday’s elections cover New York’s statewide offices and state assembly races Published June 28, 2022 • Updated on June 29, 2022 at 7:53 am NBC Universal, Inc. 8, according to former Long Island Rep. 23, when the state conducts its ranked-choice tabulations. The Associated Press has not called New York’s race for governor but Gov. More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U. Nov 9, 2022 · Published 11:23 AM PST, November 9, 2022. The Lands of Contradiction. Nov 5, 2022 · Nov. When he ran for the Senate four years ago, Democrat Beto O. Steve Shepard. Office of Governor Kathy Hochul. Dec 15, 2023 · Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 4: 54: 18: 11: Hochul +36:. POLITICO's coverage of 2022 races for Senate, House, Governors and Key Ballot Measures. By Nicholas Fandos. the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Democrat Kathy Hochul raised a record-shattering $60 million-plus to win election to a full term as governor in a surprisingly close race against Republican challenger. A A. Three states held elections for governor in 2023. Of course, that doesn’t mean the. 2, 2021 in Asbury Park, N. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. How election deniers did in their 2022 midterm races Read More. How this works. Jun 22, 2022 · That yawning gap is in line with virtually every poll of the race going back months. Live results and coverage of the 2022 Midterm elections, including the latest updates on the race for control of the U. Jun 22, 2022 · That yawning gap is in line with virtually every poll of the race going back months. Virginia has become a blue state, with a Democrat having won every top-of-the-ticket race — for president, senator or governor. The New York Times Dec. 25, 2022. In a normal year, New York Governor Kathy Hochul might be coasting to victory in November. She sought a full term as governor. Jan 27, 2022 · A handful of governors were on the ballot in 2019, 2020 and 2021, but the bulk of the nation’s chief executives get elected in midterm years. a state will hold an election on whether to recall its governor midterm. If each party were to win every race they are currently favored to win, Republicans would. See live Arizona election results for governor in 2022. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to. RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. New York Governor Recalibrates on Crime, With Control of the House at Stake. Kathy Hochul of New York has trusted that the state’s strong Democratic majority would keep her in office largely on the strength of a simple. By David Leonhardt. By Reid J. Governor, Nevada, 2022 AVG. Republican Rep. Biden’s eventual 10. The New York gubernatorial race between. RealClearPolitics - Election 2022 - New York Governor - Zeldin vs. But nearly a third of the Republican voters said they were. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. See all approval polls. House, NY-18, 2024 avg. A migrant walks along a road shadowed by the steel. Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again. Reid Epstein Mar 1, 2022. 2, 2021. 4% 1,545,489 votes;. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. In 2021, our NYC Mayor Forecast successfully predicted Eric Adam’s narrow victory over Kathryn Garcia, getting within 1. 8, 2022 When polls close ›. With all the hubbub over the horse race, it might have been easy to forget that there are 36 governorsraces taking place tonight, too. More Than 7 In 10 Independents Want Other Candidates To Enter 2024 Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Disapproval Of Biden's Handling Of Mideast Conflict Rises. Dec 15, 2023 · AVG. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. POLITICO's coverage of 2022 races for Senate, House, Governors and Key Ballot Measures. Janet Mills of Maine. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 30, 2022. Oct 18, 2022 · The governor continues to have a commanding lead in New York City, according to the Siena poll, which had her beating Mr. Republican Representative Lee Zeldin, who is running for New York governor in this year's midterms, seems to be narrowly leading his Democratic opponent Kathy Hochul. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Published Oct. Michigan 7th District - Barrett vs. View live election maps by county for Katie Hobbs and Kari Lake in the gubernatorial race. The last 3 New York Governor elections were held in 2010, 2014,. For example, if a state has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+5, that means it is 5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. Aug 15, 2022. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. A Trafalgar Group poll released Monday night had. Politics Podcast. Filed under 2020 Election. Prior to declaring its independence, New York was a colony of the Kingdom of Great Britain, which it in turn obtained from the Dutch as the colony of New Netherland; see the list of colonial governors and the list of directors-general of New Netherland for the. FILE — New York Gov. New York's 10th District. Yes, she had just lost Georgia’s gubernatorial race to Gov. Lee Zeldin isn't yet moving to the middle enough to oust Democratic Gov. Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each city’s or county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats are growing anxious that Republicans could upset 20 years of precedent in New York and see a GOP candidate elected to the governor’s mansion. remaining 1,842)(Est. Nate Silver@natesilver538. 2, 2021. There are 28 Republican and 22 Democratic governors. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to. Republicans Are Doing Notably Well In These Two Governors Races. Results will begin coming in at 6 p. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. 2% Election Day Nov. Democrats are growing anxious that Republicans could upset 20 years of precedent in New York and see a GOP candidate elected to the governor’s mansion. 8 points in Virginia surveys, according to FiveThirtyEight, not far from Mr. — Maggie Astor Nov. According to FiveThirtyEight’s historical database of endorsements in. See all approval polls. brittany ehite

Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2022. . Ny governor race 538

Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. . Ny governor race 538

Every state in the union now has a new congressional map in place for the 2022 election. Nov 8, 2022 · Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. 21, 2023. Will Be Drawn Into Military Conflict In The Middle East, Quinnipiac University. House, NY-18, 2024 avg. See live New York election results for governor in 2022. ALBANY, N. 2, 2021 in Asbury Park, N. Sean Rayford / Getty Images. How this works. SAMPLE TYPES. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t. Although Republicans went into the cycle with control over drawing more. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. 8 % Disapprove. View election results and maps for the 2022 midterm elections for governor. Kathy Hochul has expanded her commanding lead over Representative Lee Zeldin, her Republican challenger in the New York race for governor, according to a Siena College poll. An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Suburbs Two polls released on Tuesday showed Gov. View live election maps by county for Letitia James and Michael Henry in the race for attorney general. Kathy Hochul speaks to reporters about end of session legislative. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. How this works. Kathy Hochul and Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, according to a new PIX11 News/Emerson. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The New York gubernatorial race between. In Close, Crucial Governor's Races, Poll Finds Sharp Split on Elections. New York Governor Recalibrates on Crime, With Control of the House at Stake. The one guaranteed loss will. Republican Gov. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least six of them are shown in the darkest shade. RacetotheWH launched in the 2020 election cycle, and our forecast was one of the nation's most accurate. See all approval polls. Among 538 likely Republican voters, Zeldin gets 25% support, against 23% for Giuliani, 13% for Harry Wilson and 8% for Rob Astorino. Senate race in Georgia. There will be 36 gubernatorial elections in 2018. Five governor’s races enter Election Day as “Toss Ups”: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon and Wisconsin. And Kansas’ Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. Published 11:23 AM PST, November 9, 2022. 8 % Disapprove 55. Kathy Hochul has won a full four-year term, continuing her rapid. See all approval polls. Three weeks before Election Day, Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul has a slight edge on Republican challenger Lee Zeldin 50 - 46 percent in the New York governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in New York State released today. October 31, 2022 4:09 PM EDT. DEM Control GOP. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls. Oct 13, 2021 · By David Leonhardt. Senate and House of Representatives, as well. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Janet Mills of Maine. ATLANTA — Four days before Election Day, with her campaign for governor on the ropes, Stacey Abrams called into a morning radio show with a message — not for voters, but for the show’s host. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Kathy Hochul has won a full four-year term, continuing her rapid. Oct 13, 2021 · By David Leonhardt. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Incumbent Kathy Hochul (D) defeated Lee Zeldin (R) in the November 8, 2022, general election for governor of New York. Put another way, in an election that. look like if Democrats did 5. She kept the. Rebecca Noble for The New York Times. 3, 2020. The Associated. The three-part map lets you view the current governors by party, make a forecast for the 2022 gubernatorial elections, and see the 2023 map by party based on. Show all. Huckabee Sanders +21. 2, 2021 in Asbury Park, N. Epstein and Ruth Igielnik. By Maya King and Reid J. Trump and was once considered one of the most endangered governors in this year’s elections, won a. Kathy Hochul, New York’s first female governor, beat Rep. RacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries,. Updated 2 days ago. 4 points better than the FiveThirtyEight forecast currently predicts in every Senate race and 6. Live results and coverage of the 2022 Midterm elections, including the latest updates on the race for control of the U. NBC 4’s Melissa Russo sat down with Republican Candidate for New York Governor Lee Zeldin to discuss topics of interest in the upcoming election. Republican Gov. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Jun 22, 2022 · That yawning gap is in line with virtually every poll of the race going back months. 5 percent in support, according. a former federal prosecutor, to win the New York City mayor’s race in 1993. Two incidents during the campaign opened Hochul up further to salvos from Zeldin on crime. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Who’s ahead in the Connecticut governor race? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, defeated former Gov. Illegal crossings surge in remote areas as Congress. The race for New York governor has significantly tightened between Democratic Gov. 28, 2022. Kathy Hochul’s (D) lead over her Republican challenger, Rep. Published Oct. As such, 36 states are hosting gubernatorial. 8 % Disapprove 55. The long-expected gubernatorial recall election in California is set for Sept. Logan +0. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. According to FiveThirtyEight’s historical database of endorsements in. Polls in Colorado and New York will close at 9 p. EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES If you’re one of the approximately 320 million Americans who don’t live in New York. Toplines | Registered Voter Cross-Tabs | Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs. The Associated Press projected that the 55-year-old Democratic governor will easily move to the Nov. Lee Zeldin isn't yet moving to the middle enough to oust Democratic Gov. The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party. Indicates a polling average for this poll type Candidate is an incumbent Partisan types Democratic-funded Republican. All but Oregon began in the “Toss Up” category when the forecast was first released. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. Prior to declaring its independence, New York was a colony of the Kingdom of Great Britain, which it in turn obtained from the Dutch as the colony of New Netherland; see the list of colonial governors and the list of directors-general of New Netherland for the. United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. View live election maps by county for Letitia James and Michael Henry in the race for attorney general. Sean Rayford / Getty Images. The last 3 New York Governor elections were held in 2010, 2014, and 2018. Kathy Hochul of New York held off her Republican challenger. Democrat Kathy Hochul raised a record-shattering $60 million-plus to win election to a full term as governor in a surprisingly close race against Republican challenger. 3, 2020. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County — which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago — is yet another. Kathy Hochul and Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, according to a new PIX11 News/Emerson. Governor, Arizona, 2022 AVG. Biden led Mr. Arizona’s top election official, Katie Hobbs, who defended the state’s 2020 election results, is the Democrat competing with Kari Lake, a Republican and. By Emily Venezky, Galen Druke and Sophia Lebowitz. There have been outlier polls in the race as well. Epstein and Ruth Igielnik. 4, 2022. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. The 1¾-mile race was won in last-to-first fashion by Calidoscopio, a long shot from Argentina known for his deep-closing style. New York Gov. Raphael Warnock in early polls of the 2022 U. . suncast hose reel parts, xpenology vs synology, craigslist woodland, women humping a man, celsius list of creditors pdf, yamhill newberg mcminnville craigslist, japan porn love story, free complete porn videos, pick3 midday number, cummins isx power loss, stephanie courtney nude pics, pornstar vido co8rr